Sabre-rattling by Egypt in Somalia and Ethiopia\u2019s offensive statements against Somalia\u2019s sovereignty are burying the hope to defuse the tension between Somalia and Ethiopia, which might also lead to geopolitical crisis, however immediate intervention for peace is vital.<\/p>\n
Leaders of Somalia and Ethiopia are somehow tarred with the same brush, for not admitting the biding and unchangeable relations between the two countries,\u00a0 while blindfolding the reality that these two countries will always be neighbors and inseparable in the geographic and geopolitical aspects.<\/p>\n
Ethiopia\u2019s disdain to Somali government further fuels the tension between the two countries and in this way Ethiopia not only loses its interest in\u00a0 Somalia but also destabilizes the whole of Horn of Africa.<\/p>\n
Ethiopia\u2019s Political setbacks<\/strong><\/p>\n Abiy Ahmed, the Prime minister of Ethiopia \u2013 a landlocked country over a 100 million people – is moving to seek a port or naval base in the Red Sea either by diplomacy or by force. \u00a0According to Professor Redie Berekteab, PM Abiy Ahmed decided to deflect criticism over local conflicts and deepening economic crises. Mr. Redie believes that it may have maritime access through compromise and deals with its neighbors with subverting the region<\/a>.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n Somalia\u2019s internal problems and the Al-Shabaab offense<\/strong><\/p>\n Somalia government has been battling Al-Shabaab, an insurgent group affiliated with Al-Qaeda, who targets government forces, AMISOM and also civilians.\u00a0 The government launched an offensive in 2022 with the help of local militias known as Macawisley<\/a>, but that offensive drove Al-Shabaab many villages and towns.<\/p>\n But, the war with Al-Shabaab seems far from ending.\u00a0 Prof. Afyare A. Elmi, a renowned Somali researcher and scholar, offers timely and well-grounded suggestions in an article he penned for the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, \u201cEngaging Al-Shabaab in Somalia: Military Failures and the Merits of Dialogue<\/a>.\u201d In this article, Mr Afyare describes different stages of the military campaign against Al-Shabaab since 2007.<\/p>\n Examining the situation from different aspects, Afyare puts forward many scholars\u2019 and practitioners\u2019 conclusions: Somalia\u2019s government should explore ways to negotiate Al-Shabaab. \u00a0Mr. Afyare understands the existence of numerous challenges but sees as well multiple avenues for engaging Al-Shabaab, but this success needs the engagement of a trusted mediator and full support of Somalia\u2019s allies and backers.<\/strong><\/p>\n Many analysts believe that Somaliland\u2019s newly elected president Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi \u201cIrro\u201d<\/a> can significantly defuse tensions between Somaliland and Somalia.<\/p>\n Due to his diplomatic background, it is highly probable that President Irro will resume Somalia-Somaliland talks, a move that might alleviate the tension in the Horn of Africa<\/p>\n African Union (AU) lacks in finding African problems for African Solutions<\/strong><\/p>\n African Union (AU) has failed to find African problems for African led solutions like the crisis of West Africa, Sudan, Somalia and Ethiopia, Congo and Rwanda etc. This makes the continental body toothless.<\/p>\n Tripartite Ageement: Ethiopia, Somalia and Eritrea<\/strong><\/p>\n A short-lived alliance between Somalia, Ethiopia and Eritrea<\/a> only lasted in a few years. Somalia\u2019s then president Mohamed Abdullahi, Eritrea\u2019s president Isaias and Ethiopia Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed signed a tripartite agreement in 2018. \u00a0However, the trio excluded the leading political elder and respected figure in the Horn of Africa, President Ismail Omar Guelleh of Djibouti.\u00a0 President Guelleh is considered as an elder and a real treasure of the region due to his experience and enthusiasm for the betterment of the region.<\/p>\n The close relation between Abiy, Farmajo and Isaias were expected to end the crisis in the region, especially the rift between Djibouti and Eritrea. The trio\u2019s move to ignore Guelleh\u2019s involvement in the alliance of Horn of Africa was diplomatic mistake, which made the alliance ephemeral.<\/p>\n Now, in 2024,similar alliance based on mutual interest has been formed.\u00a0 Somalia, Eritrea and Egypt<\/a> signed a tripartite agreement against Ethiopia. This trio has fresh and old diplomatic conflicts with Addis Ababa, after Abiy voiced his ambition to get landlocked Ethiopia a passage to Red Sea.\u00a0 Again, Djibouti is not officially part and parcel of this alliance, but its possible to have on-board, Should Somalia, Egypt and Eritrea leaders understand the importance to solve Djibouti-Eritrea border dispute.<\/p>\n Ethiopia has not accustomed to having it\u2019s words questioned on Somali issues in the last 30 years, in which Somalia was coping with first civil war and multifaceted war ranging from religious to interest driven.<\/p>\n Regardless Somalia\u2019s dependence on international support for its stability and budgetary sides, Somalia has legitimate, fully recognized government and free to collaborate with every country it sees its interest and Somalia\u2019s president Hassan Sheikh Mohamud comprehend fully this and practiced indefatigably.<\/p>\n Ethiopia downplays Somalia<\/strong><\/p>\n Magniloquent and boasting statements and actions of Ethiopian leaders \u2013 to downgrade the legitimacy and right of Somali leaders to self-determine and have their political tie-ups with every-and -each country in the world \u2013 are abetting and nurturing hostilities in the region.<\/p>\n Abiy Ahmed has last year presented vociferously his desire to regain Ethiopia\u2019s<\/a> presence on the Red Sea after Eritrea got its independence from Ethiopia, a move that expelled Ethiopia out of the Red Sea. Abiy\u2019s declaration bewildered Red Sea countries, subsequently caused vigilance across the region and expedited diplomatic approaches between Eritrea and Somalia.<\/p>\n Despite, Ethiopia ethno-political clashes and uncertain situation coupled with Somalia\u2019s prolonged woe inherited from terrorist elements and clan \u2013based power sharing \u2013 is putting both countries on the edge of civil unrest, in addition to Sudan\u2019s destructive and brutal civil war. Djibouti enjoys steady government led by experienced, assertive leader compared to the rest of Horn of Africa leaders..<\/p>\n Somalia and Egypt sign pact<\/strong><\/p>\n Somalia\u2019s president Hassan Sheikh Mohamud signed a treaty with Egypt on aiming at helping<\/a> Somalia war against terrorism and foreign aggressions with the purpose of protecting Somalia\u2019s sovereignty. Incontestably, this treaty means in the diplomatic language security cooperation but in reality, it is a military cooperation between Somalia and Egypt against Ethiopia\u2019s intention to gain naval base in Somalia\u2019s Red Sea portion.<\/p>\n Egypt\u2019s propound to participate peacekeeping mission in Somalia under the AU\/UN mandate created frustration on Ethiopian leadership, who in conflict with Egypt over Nile river.\u00a0 Subsequently, Somalia\u2019s defiance minister Abdukadir Mohamed Nur announced that Ethiopian armed forced will not participate in the upcoming AU peacekeeping mission in Somalia, which is set to start in January 2025.<\/p>\n Ethiopia assumes comprehensibly that Egypt is going to destabilize Ethiopia and stop Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) built by Ethiopia \u2013 the dam is one of the largest hydropower projects in the world and the largest in Africa – which effects the downstream of the Nile river.<\/p>\n Ethiopia seeks Alliance to counter its neighbors\u2019 alliance<\/strong><\/p>\n Ethiopia convened in Addis Ababa the first African Defence ministers\u2019 conference on 15th to 18th October 2024 playing a facilitator\u2019s role according to ENA news agency<\/a>. The theme of the conference is \u201cAfrica: United in Peace, Strong in Security”, and it comes to a time Ethiopia is avid for access to Red Sea by hook or by crook.<\/p>\n The move by Ethiopia\u2019s leadership to arrange a conference for the ministers of defiance at this time the region is on the edge of war was to divert the attention of the African leaders at the conference, while otherwise shows Ethiopia\u2019s enemies that it gaining continental support for its actions.<\/p>\n A glimmer of hope for peace<\/strong><\/p>\n Qatar, Finland and Turkey<\/a> have multifaceted relations with Horn of Africa countries with the Finnish government prioritizing peace mediation its foreign policy.\u00a0 Finland under the leadership of President of the Republic of Finland Alexander Stubb and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs accelerated diplomatic cooperation with Qatar<\/a> and Turkey on peace mediation in the world.<\/p>\n In a powerful message to the world during UN-General Assembly early in October 2024 Finnish president Alexander Stubb conveyed<\/a> emphasized the importance of mutual peace and order in the world and how Finland, as a tiny country in Northern Europe has played important roles in world\u2019s peace. The president exhorted every country to work on peace.<\/p>\n \u201cAs my mentor and great friend of the UN, the late President Martti Ahtisaari said in his acceptance speech for the Nobel Peace Prize in 2008: \u201cPeace is a question of will. All conflicts can be settled, and there are no excuses for allowing them to become eternal.\u201d \u201cLet us keep Martti\u2019s words in mind and start working towards peace\u201d.\u00a0 Mr. Stubb concluded his speech.<\/p>\n However, Suldaan Said Ahmed\u2019s nominations as Finland foreign ministry\u2019s Special Envoy on Peace Mediation in the Horn of Africa further assures the country\u2019s commitment to peace mediation in the Horn of Africa.\u00a0 Many analysts say that the envoy fits the role.<\/p>\n The launch of the East Africa Youth Peace Network in Finland<\/strong><\/p>\n Finland\u2019s Centre for Peace Mediation, along with Suldaan Said Ahmed, recently supported the launch of the East Africa Youth Peace Network in Finland<\/a>. This network, which will operate under the support of the Helsinki Deaconess Institute<\/a>, comprises youth from the East African diaspora and symbolizes a promising initiative focused on youth involvement from these countries in the early stages of peace processes.<\/p>\n Youth in the Horn of Africa are no longer bystanders\u2014they have shown their will and readiness to participate in peace mediation in the region. Thus, \u201cIf there is a will, there\u2019s a way!\u201d<\/p>\n During a panel discussion on peace and mediation in Martti Ahtisaari Legacy\u2019s Seminar aiming to inspire dialogue on the future of peace-making on 1 October 2024 in Ankara, Turkey, Suldaan said:\u00a0 \u201cWe don\u2019t need to see the Horn only through<\/a> the negative. They have a big population of young people who are ready to solve problems. We provide resources and expertise to their initiatives.\u201d<\/p>\n Media role in Peace mediation<\/strong><\/p>\n Media can play a significant role in promoting peace by enlightening the importance of Horn of Africa countries\u2019 coexistence, as research has shown that media affects both positively and negatively in people’s way of thinking and feeling.<\/p>\n A group of intellectuals from Horn of Africa, living in Finland had self-designated themselves as Peace Advocators and started meetings aimed to soothe inter-community tensions in the region by creating peace-supporting platforms and forums as well as through social and ordinary media outlets.<\/p>\n \u201cWe, as Horn of Africa Intellectuals based in Finland are willing to conduct community-level discussions through widely used ordinary and social media platforms, and mobilize and engage well-wishers of the region\u2019s non-governmental youth organizations, diasporas, businessmen, traditional, religious and civil society leaders to take part de-escalating tasks in their respective countries in the region\u201d Fekade LW said.<\/p>\n \u201cOur members are from Ethiopia, Somalia and Eritrea and we all have a common concern relating to the unnecessary wars and political tensions in the region, where people are already suffering from droughts and food scarcity caused by climate changes \u201d Mohamed Ibrahim a member of this group noted.<\/p>\n Written by: Abdi Musse Mohamud<\/em><\/p>\n The author is chief editor of<\/em> Finnish-Somali media network<\/em><\/a>, <\/em>media trainer<\/em><\/a> and peace advocate and. <\/em>He writes about <\/em>peace and conflict solution in Horn of Africa<\/em><\/a>.<\/em>He can be reached via email: <\/em>abdimusem@yahoo.com<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Sabre-rattling by Egypt in Somalia and Ethiopia’s offensive statements against Somalia’s sovereignty are burying the hope to defuse the tension between Somalia and Ethiopia, which might also lead to geopolitical crisis, however immediate intervention for peace is vital. 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